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Gold market overview

Gold market overview

2019-11-11 • Actualizada

Gold prices hit their March high at $1247 in the European session posting gains for six consecutive days. A further upsurge is not ruled out. To determine whether there will be a retracement, we suggest you looking at gold fundamentals and XAU/USD technical chart.

Fundamentals:

The political uncertainties over European election and Brexit offer substantial support for the gold prices. The recent spike in the gold prices should be attributed to another factor. Lots of the gold’s gains came after the Fed raised its interest rate, but maintained a more subdued pace for future rate hikes. An expectation for a slower pace of rate increases will be the factor of the gold appreciation.

Another tailwind may well come from India, the world’s largest consumer of the yellow metal. Last year, Indian gold demand plummeted from 857,2 tonnes to 675.5 tonnes mainly because of the governmental regulation necessitating the removal of high denomination 500 and 1,000 rupee notes in November. This year the Indian demand is recovering: gold imports jumped to 50 tonnes in February which 82% more than India demanded in the same month last year.

Another gold consumer People’s Republic of China might increase its demand for gold. The main factor it the value of yuan. Chinese yuan depreciate with unpredictable pace, so the investors might be willing to switch to gold as a hedge.

Technical analysis:

The precious metal rallied to $1,247 overnight. The key resistance on its way is lying at $1,250 near the 78.6 Fibo level traced from this year high.  A breakout of this level will open the way towards next hurdles at 1,255.60, 1,260. An immediate support lies at $1,237.50 (61.8% Fibo level) and at $1221.40 (near 38.2% Fibo level coinciding with 50-day MA).  

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